One consequence of climate change in Madison: More rain
Climate change is projected to bring more rain and stronger storms to Madison. The city is already feeling its effects. Climate change is making extreme precipitation events more common in Madison, according to Steve Vavrus, Wisconsin’s state climatologist. The recent 2.25 inches of rain recorded at Dane County Regional Airport on May 24 broke Madison's previous rainfall record of 1.53 inches. This was the fourth daily precipitation record to fall at the airport this year. The 2010s were Madison's wettest decade on record, with many more 1- to 2-inch rainfalls. This shift from severe drought conditions in the late 2023 to early 2024 is seen as an abrupt shift from drought conditions. However, predictions suggest more frequent flip-flops between very wet and very dry conditions.
Veröffentlicht : vor 10 Monaten durch Nicole Pollack | Wisconsin State Journal, nicole pollack in Environment
The unrelenting rainstorms that have drenched Madison over the past couple of weeks are — increasingly — becoming the city’s new normal.
Last month, the 2.25 inches of rain recorded at Dane County Regional Airport on May 24 shattered Madison’s previous rainfall record for that date of 1.53 inches. It was the fourth daily precipitation record to fall at the airport this year, following records set on Feb. 15, March 14 and April 2, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows. The city has tracked its rainfall since the 1890s.
It’s unusual for a storm to drop 2 or more inches of rain over Madison in a single day.
“Madison typically gets on average about one per year,” said Steve Vavrus, Wisconsin’s state climatologist. “That’s roughly like an annual maximum rainfall amount right there. Not necessarily that it will be this year, but on average, we typically get about one 2-inch or heavier rainfall in a year.”
Most of the time, those 2-or-more-inch rainstorms happen in the summer.
“Pretty much, the warmer the month, the more precipitation we get around here. So the three wettest months, on average, in Wisconsin and Madison, those are June, July and August,” Vavrus said.
But climate change is making extreme precipitation events more common. Madison is trending wetter in general, Vavrus said. And because warmer air can hold more moisture, individual storms are also getting bigger.
The 2010s were Madison’s wettest decade on record. (The 1940s were the driest.) The most significant difference in precipitation across the two decades was that in the 2010s, the city saw many more 1- to 2-inch rainfalls, Vavrus said.
“I think the reason is because those rainfall amounts are heavy enough to add up, but they’re also common enough to add up, too,” he said. “The really heavy rains, like 3 inches, are so rare that they don’t contribute a lot. And really light rainfalls of a few hundredths of an inch or a few tenths of an inch are common, but they too don’t accumulate a whole lot in total.”
This year’s abundant rainfall is an abrupt shift from the drought conditions that blanketed the state during the second half of 2023 and persisted into the early months of 2024. Most of Wisconsin, including all of Dane County, is now drought-free .
But Wisconsin’s weather whiplash tracks with the climate models, too. “The indications are that we’ll be seeing more flip-flops between very wet and very dry,” Vavrus said. “And that’s certainly been on display in the past year.”
Last year brought some of the most severe drought conditions Wisconsin has seen this century . The winter of 2023–24 was Wisconsin’s — and Dane County’s — warmest on record. And this spring is on track to be one of the five wettest yet, both statewide and in Dane County.
“It’s a strange year,” Vavrus said.
More strange years are likely to come.
Themen: Climate Change, ESG